European Rugby Challenge Cup 25/26

Team Rankings

Club Rankings

Standings

Current Standings

Pool A

Club Played Wins Point Differential Losing Bonus Points Try Bonus Points Competition Points
Montpellier Herault 4 4 42 0   16
Zebre 4 3 18 0 1 13
Ospreys 4 2 5 2 1 11
Connacht 4 2 108 2   10
Black Lion 4 1 -74 0   4
US Montauban 4 0 -99 1   1

Pool B

Club Played Wins Point Differential Losing Bonus Points Try Bonus Points Competition Points
Benetton Treviso 4 4 93 0   16
Newcastle Falcons 4 3 -3 0   12
Perpignan 4 1 4 1 1 8
Dragons 4 2 -52 0   8
Lions 4 1 -3 1   7
Lyon 4 0 -39 1   1

Pool C

Club Played Wins Point Differential Losing Bonus Points Try Bonus Points Competition Points
Stade Francais Paris 4 3 39 1 1 14
Exeter Chiefs 4 2 59 1 1 12
Ulster 3 2 58 1 1 10
Cardiff Rugby 4 2 -30 0   8
Racing 92 4 1 -70 0   6
Cheetahs 3 0 -56 1   1

Projected Remaining Table

Pool A

| Club | To Play | Projected Wins | Projected Differential | Projected Losing Bonus Points | Projected Try Bonus Points | Projected Competition Points | |——–|———–|——————|————————–|———————————|——————————|——————————–|

Pool B

| Club | To Play | Projected Wins | Projected Differential | Projected Losing Bonus Points | Projected Try Bonus Points | Projected Competition Points | |——–|———–|——————|————————–|———————————|——————————|——————————–|

Pool C

Club To Play Projected Wins Projected Differential Projected Losing Bonus Points Projected Try Bonus Points Projected Competition Points
Ulster 1 0.72 7.06 0.15   3.15
Cheetahs 1 0.22 -7.06 0.25   1.25

Projected Total Table

Pool A

Club Played Wins Point Differential Losing Bonus Points Try Bonus Points Competition Points
Montpellier Herault 4 4 42 0   16
Zebre 4 3 18 0 1 13
Ospreys 4 2 5 2 1 11
Connacht 4 2 108 2   10
Black Lion 4 1 -74 0   4
US Montauban 4 0 -99 1   1

Pool B

Club Played Wins Point Differential Losing Bonus Points Try Bonus Points Competition Points
Benetton Treviso 4 4 93 0   16
Newcastle Falcons 4 3 -3 0   12
Perpignan 4 1 4 1 1 8
Dragons 4 2 -52 0   8
Lions 4 1 -3 1   7
Lyon 4 0 -39 1   1

Pool C

Club Played Wins Point Differential Losing Bonus Points Try Bonus Points Competition Points
Stade Francais Paris 4 3 39 1 1 14
Ulster 4 2.72 65.06 1.15 1 13.15
Exeter Chiefs 4 2 59 1 1 12
Cardiff Rugby 4 2 -30 0   8
Racing 92 4 1 -70 0   6
Cheetahs 4 0.22 -63.06 1.25   2.25

Projected Playoff Results

  Reach Round of 16 Win Round of 16 Reach Quarterfinal Win Quarterfinal Reach Semifinal Win Semifinal Reach Final Win Final
Montpellier Herault 100.0 % 80.0 % 80.0 % 47.0 % 47.0 % 35.0 % 35.0 % 20.0 %
Stade Francais Paris 100.0 % 81.0 % 81.0 % 57.0 % 57.0 % 24.0 % 24.0 % 13.0 %
Ulster 100.0 % 75.0 % 75.0 % 60.0 % 60.0 % 22.0 % 22.0 % 12.0 %
Exeter Chiefs 100.0 % 67.0 % 67.0 % 31.0 % 31.0 % 20.0 % 20.0 % 12.0 %
Benetton Treviso 100.0 % 73.0 % 73.0 % 45.0 % 45.0 % 28.0 % 28.0 % 11.0 %
Sharks 100.0 % 42.0 % 42.0 % 19.0 % 19.0 % 15.0 % 15.0 % 8.0 %
Ospreys 100.0 % 58.0 % 58.0 % 20.0 % 20.0 % 11.0 % 11.0 % 7.0 %
Munster 100.0 % 33.0 % 33.0 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 9.0 % 9.0 % 7.0 %
Leicester Tigers 100.0 % 57.0 % 57.0 % 22.0 % 22.0 % 13.0 % 13.0 % 5.0 %
Dragons 100.0 % 27.0 % 27.0 % 16.0 % 16.0 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 2.0 %
Cardiff Rugby 100.0 % 20.0 % 20.0 % 10.0 % 10.0 % 6.0 % 6.0 % 2.0 %
Newcastle Falcons 100.0 % 51.0 % 51.0 % 10.0 % 10.0 % 2.0 % 2.0 % 1.0 %
Bulls 100.0 % 49.0 % 49.0 % 14.0 % 14.0 % 4.0 % 4.0 % 0.0 %
Connacht 100.0 % 25.0 % 25.0 % 16.0 % 16.0 % 2.0 % 2.0 % 0.0 %
Perpignan 100.0 % 19.0 % 19.0 % 9.0 % 9.0 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 0.0 %
Zebre 100.0 % 43.0 % 43.0 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %

Completed Match Review

Model Percent Correct Predictions Spread Error
Club Level 69.6% 9.2
Player Level: Lineup nan% nan
Player Level: Minutes nan% nan

Future Predictions

Week 5

Cheetahs V Ulster on 2026/01/11

Average Margin: Ulster by 7.1

Week 6

Ulster V Connacht on 2026-04-02

Average Margin: Ulster by 7.7

Benetton Treviso V Dragons on 2026-04-02

Average Margin: Benetton Treviso by 5.2

Newcastle Falcons V Bulls on 2026-04-02

Average Margin: Newcastle Falcons by 2.3

Zebre V Leicester Tigers on 2026-04-02

Average Margin: Leicester Tigers by 1.5

Ospreys V Sharks on 2026-04-02

Average Margin: Ospreys by 3.5

Montpellier Herault V Cardiff Rugby on 2026-04-02

Average Margin: Montpellier Herault by 6.7

Exeter Chiefs V Munster on 2026-04-02

Average Margin: Exeter Chiefs by 3.4

Stade Francais Paris V Perpignan on 2026-04-02

Average Margin: Stade Francais Paris by 9.1

Week 7

Ulster V Newcastle Falcons on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Ulster by 8.9

Ulster V Bulls on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Ulster by 8.2

Connacht V Bulls on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Connacht by 4.8

Connacht V Newcastle Falcons on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Connacht by 3.2

Benetton Treviso V Ospreys on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Benetton Treviso by 5.5

Dragons V Sharks on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Dragons by 1.5

Benetton Treviso V Sharks on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Benetton Treviso by 2.4

Dragons V Ospreys on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Dragons by 4.0

Stade Francais Paris V Leicester Tigers on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Stade Francais Paris by 4.1

Perpignan V Leicester Tigers on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Leicester Tigers by 5.0

Perpignan V Zebre on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Perpignan by 3.3

Stade Francais Paris V Zebre on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Stade Francais Paris by 7.5

Cardiff Rugby V Exeter Chiefs on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Exeter Chiefs by 2.4

Montpellier Herault V Exeter Chiefs on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Montpellier Herault by 1.4

Montpellier Herault V Munster on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Montpellier Herault by 4.0

Cardiff Rugby V Munster on 2026-04-09

Average Margin: Munster by 0.5

Week 8

Benetton Treviso V Stade Francais Paris on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Stade Francais Paris by 0.2

Cardiff Rugby V Connacht on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Cardiff Rugby by 12.0

Montpellier Herault V Bulls on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Montpellier Herault by 10.1

Munster V Newcastle Falcons on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Munster by 9.0

Cardiff Rugby V Newcastle Falcons on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Cardiff Rugby by 10.5

Exeter Chiefs V Newcastle Falcons on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Exeter Chiefs by 6.7

Munster V Ulster on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Munster by 6.6

Montpellier Herault V Newcastle Falcons on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Montpellier Herault by 8.2

Exeter Chiefs V Bulls on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Exeter Chiefs by 7.2

Montpellier Herault V Connacht on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Montpellier Herault by 9.1

Munster V Connacht on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Munster by 8.5

Montpellier Herault V Ulster on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Montpellier Herault by 1.9

Exeter Chiefs V Ulster on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Exeter Chiefs by 1.0

Sharks V Leicester Tigers on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Leicester Tigers by 0.7

Ospreys V Perpignan on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Perpignan by 5.0

Benetton Treviso V Perpignan on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Benetton Treviso by 7.3

Dragons V Zebre on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Dragons by 29.0

Sharks V Zebre on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Sharks by 1.0

Dragons V Stade Francais Paris on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Dragons by 3.8

Sharks V Stade Francais Paris on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Sharks by 5.6

Benetton Treviso V Leicester Tigers on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Benetton Treviso by 5.5

Ospreys V Stade Francais Paris on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Ospreys by 2.6

Ospreys V Zebre on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Ospreys by 9.2

Dragons V Perpignan on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Dragons by 6.5

Benetton Treviso V Zebre on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Benetton Treviso by 11.0

Sharks V Perpignan on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Sharks by 14.3

Dragons V Leicester Tigers on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Leicester Tigers by 1.0

Ospreys V Leicester Tigers on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Leicester Tigers by 0.5

Cardiff Rugby V Ulster on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Ulster by 1.8

Cardiff Rugby V Bulls on 2026-04-30

Average Margin: Cardiff Rugby by 2.5

Final

Benetton Treviso V Ulster on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Ulster by 0.2

Stade Francais Paris V Munster on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Munster by 0.0

Perpignan V Ulster on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Ulster by 1.0

Dragons V Ulster on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Dragons by 2.5

Benetton Treviso V Newcastle Falcons on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Benetton Treviso by 3.5

Sharks V Munster on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Munster by 4.3

Ospreys V Cardiff Rugby on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Ospreys by 9.0

Stade Francais Paris V Exeter Chiefs on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Stade Francais Paris by 5.8

Stade Francais Paris V Ulster on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Stade Francais Paris by 2.4

Stade Francais Paris V Cardiff Rugby on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Stade Francais Paris by 7.0

Ospreys V Connacht on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Ospreys by 7.0

Benetton Treviso V Munster on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Munster by 3.0

Benetton Treviso V Connacht on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Benetton Treviso by 2.0

Stade Francais Paris V Bulls on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Stade Francais Paris by 4.0

Leicester Tigers V Munster on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Munster by 1.0

Leicester Tigers V Cardiff Rugby on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Cardiff Rugby by 8.5

Benetton Treviso V Cardiff Rugby on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Benetton Treviso by 14.0

Sharks V Montpellier Herault on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Sharks by 1.2

Dragons V Montpellier Herault on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Montpellier Herault by 1.0

Ospreys V Montpellier Herault on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Montpellier Herault by 2.7

Leicester Tigers V Exeter Chiefs on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Exeter Chiefs by 2.0

Sharks V Exeter Chiefs on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Sharks by 4.3

Benetton Treviso V Montpellier Herault on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Montpellier Herault by 1.4

Benetton Treviso V Exeter Chiefs on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Exeter Chiefs by 0.8

Dragons V Munster on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Munster by 4.5

Ospreys V Bulls on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Ospreys by 4.5

Ospreys V Ulster on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Ospreys by 4.7

Stade Francais Paris V Montpellier Herault on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Stade Francais Paris by 1.8

Leicester Tigers V Ulster on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Leicester Tigers by 4.5

Ospreys V Exeter Chiefs on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Exeter Chiefs by 13.0

Sharks V Ulster on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Ulster by 2.0

Dragons V Exeter Chiefs on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Exeter Chiefs by 13.0

Sharks V Bulls on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Sharks by 1.0

Leicester Tigers V Montpellier Herault on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Montpellier Herault by 1.6

Sharks V Cardiff Rugby on 2026-05-21

Average Margin: Sharks by 27.0