Sharks at Edinburgh

Club Level Predictions

The first set of predictions treats a club as the smallest object, as the club develops its members, organizes a gameplan, and deploys its players as needed for each match. This club model has a prediction of {}, which translates to predicting {} to win by {}.

Each club has a rating and a rating deviation (its simiar to a Glicko system), and expected performances can be generated. This allows for simulated matches and spreads like the ones below.

Projected Performances

Projected Spreads

Player Level Predictions

Treating teams instead as an entity made up of the currently active players, I have ratings for each player in an altogether different system. These can be combined to form team ratings once teamsheets are announced, weighting starters a bit higher than the reserves. Before teamsheets are announced (and added here), team ratings are calculated as an average of recent team ratings.

Predictions without Teamsheets

Sharks (~1602.45) at Edinburgh (~1604.18)

Prediction: Edinburgh by 4.2

Edinburgh by 0.2 on a neutral pitch