Sharks at Harlequins; 29-39

Club Level Predictions

The first set of predictions treats a club as the smallest object, as the club develops its members, organizes a gameplan, and deploys its players as needed for each match. This club model has a prediction of {}, which translates to predicting {} to win by {}.

Each club has a rating and a rating deviation (its simiar to a Glicko system), and expected performances can be generated. This allows for simulated matches and spreads like the ones below.

Projected Performances

Projected Spreads

Player Level Predictions

Treating teams instead as an entity made up of the currently active players, I have ratings for each player in an altogether different system. These can be combined to form team ratings once teamsheets are announced, weighting starters a bit higher than the reserves. After the match is played, players can be weighted by their minutes on the field, allowing for an accurate measure of the team’s composition. With these compiled team ratings, we can make predictions, measure inaccuracy, and update the individual player ratings.

Prediction with Player Minutes: Harlequins by 2.3

Sharks by 1.7 on a neutral field

Scores over Time

In Match Scores

Win Probability over Time

In Match Predictions

Prediction without Player Minutes: Sharks by 0.1

Sharks by 3.9 on a neutral pitch

Player Table

Away Minutes	Away Player	Away elo	Away Percentile	Number	Home Percentile	Home elo	Home Player	Home Minutes
54	Ox Nche	90.26	32	1	53	96.46	Joe Marler	62
62	Kerron van Vuuren	89.05	13	2	14	82.34	Jack Walker	72
62	Thomas du Toit	115.49	91	3	91	115.76	Wilco Louw	62
80	Eben Etzebeth	132.96	97	4	96	127.22	Stephan Lewies	80
66	Gerbrandt Grobler	95.01	47	5	87	115.8	Irne Herbst	65
80	Siya Kolisi	108.35	79	6	91	119.4	Dino Lamb	80
10	Vincent Tshituka	131.12	97	7	42	93.28	Will Evans	72
80	Phepsi Buthelezi	114.32	82	8	99	142.49	Alex Dombrandt	80
50	Jaden Hendrikse	102.86	67	9	88	114.71	Danny Care	70
75	Curwin Bosch	114.17	83	10	90	121.98	Marcus Smith	80
80	Thaakir Abrahams	89.81	32	11	78	108.13	Josh Bassett	53
62	Ben Tapuai	110.41	80	12	86	114.92	Andre Esterhuizen	80
80	Lukhanyo Am	115.33	87	13	44	93.57	Joe Marchant	80
80	Marnus Potgieter	104.54	71	14	45	94.47	Cadan Murley	75
80	Aphelele Fassi	137.85	97	15	61	101.41	Nick David	80
26	Ntuthuko Mchunu	100.52	65	16	42	93.29	Fin Baxter	18
18	Daniel Viljoen Jooste	99.89	63	17	43	93.11	George Head	8
18	Carlu Sadie	95.85	49	18	34	92.68	Simon Kerrod	18
14	Hyron Andrews	91.74	32	19	6	73.98	Luke Wallace	15
70	Sikhumbuzo Notshe	112.01	82	20	63	102.18	Tom Lawday	8
30	Grant Williams	117.07	90	21	1	62.8	Scott Steele	10
5	Lionel Cronje	122.33	91	22	85	115.49	Oscar Beard	27
18	Francois Venter	119.04	90	23	41	94.42	Tommaso Allan	5