The previous post detailed my predictions using the club based model, where each team is treated as a single entity. This completely ignores the changes in lineups from game to game or injuries that may change a team’s makeup, so has some inherent disadvantages. Especially where we have had some high profile injuries and surprise changes to world cup squads. Here, I compare the predictions made with the club model to the predictions I can make with a player based model.
Obviously no official sides for matches have been announced yet, but I can make a best guess at what a team’s best side would be, then compare those best sides against each other. These predictions may quickly fall apart if there are any more major injuries, but its not like we can - or would want to - predict those anyways.
Team Rankings
On the left we have rankings from the club model, and on the right are rankings from the player model. The top five teams are unchanged, and remain the strong favorites. But the player model rates Fiji, Argentina, and Australia worse than the club model, and ranks Japan, England, Samoa and Wales higher. I may add some future, deeper analysis on why this is and what the repercussions may be, but for now - it looks like the results from pools A and B should be unchanged, and pools C and D may be even more competitive.