Manawatu V Hawke’s Bay on 2025/10/04, 10.0 to 38.0

Club Level Predictions

Now that the game has been played, lets see how the club predictions did. I predicted Hawke’s Bay to win by 5.78, and Hawke’s Bay won by 28.0. That’s an absolute error of 22.2 for the margin of victory, while my average absolute error has been 14.4 over the past six months. This prediction was more accurate than 20.2% of my recent predictions.

For the Over/Under model, I predicted a total of 94.5 and we have an actual total of 48.0. That’s an absolute error of 46.5 compared to a six month average of 14.3. This prediction was more accurate than 1.8% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Club Model

Projected Spreads - Club Model

Projected Results - Club Model