Dax V Provence Rugby on 2026/02/20, 33.0 to 21.0

Club Level Predictions

Now that the game has been played, lets see how the club predictions did. I predicted Dax to win by 0.92, and Dax won by 12.0. That’s an absolute error of 11.1 for the margin of victory, while my average absolute error has been 13.5 over the past six months. This prediction was more accurate than 45.6% of my recent predictions.

For the Over/Under model, I predicted a total of 45.5 and we have an actual total of 54.0. That’s an absolute error of 8.5 compared to a six month average of 12.8. This prediction was more accurate than 59.1% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Club Model

Projected Spreads - Club Model

Projected Results - Club Model

Player Level Predictions

With the player model, I predicted Dax to win by 2.21, and Dax won by 12.0. That’s an absolute error of 9.8 for the margin of victory, while the average error as been 14.5 for the past six months. So this prediction was more accurate than 46.5% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Player Model

Projected Spreads - Player Model

Projected Results - Player Model