Exeter Chiefs V Bath Rugby on 2026/02/21, 31.0 to 19.0

Club Level Predictions

Now that the game has been played, lets see how the club predictions did. I predicted Exeter Chiefs to win by 0.46, and Exeter Chiefs won by 12.0. That’s an absolute error of 11.5 for the margin of victory, while my average absolute error has been 13.5 over the past six months. This prediction was more accurate than 44.1% of my recent predictions.

For the Over/Under model, I predicted a total of 49.5 and we have an actual total of 50.0. That’s an absolute error of 0.5 compared to a six month average of 12.8. This prediction was more accurate than 97.4% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Club Model

Projected Spreads - Club Model

Projected Results - Club Model

Player Level Predictions

With the player model, I predicted Exeter Chiefs to win by 3.9, and Exeter Chiefs won by 12.0. That’s an absolute error of 8.1 for the margin of victory, while the average error as been 14.5 for the past six months. So this prediction was more accurate than 51.8% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Player Model

Projected Spreads - Player Model

Projected Results - Player Model