Hawke's Bay V Manawatu on 2026/08/21

Hawke’s Bay V Manawatu on 2026/08/21, 59.0 to 17.0

Club Level Predictions

Now that the game has been played, lets see how the club predictions did. I predicted Hawke’s Bay to win by 20.55, and Hawke’s Bay won by 42.0. That’s an absolute error of 21.4 for the margin of victory, while my average absolute error has been 14.8 over the past six months. This prediction was more accurate than 23.3% of my recent predictions.

For the Over/Under model, I predicted a total of 51.5 and we have an actual total of 76.0. That’s an absolute error of 24.5 compared to a six month average of 14.3. This prediction was more accurate than 19.0% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Club Model

Projected Spreads - Club Model

Projected Results - Club Model

Player Level Predictions

With the player model, I predicted Hawke’s Bay to win by 5.78, and Hawke’s Bay won by 42.0. That’s an absolute error of 36.2 for the margin of victory, while the average error as been 15.1 for the past six months. So this prediction was more accurate than 6.0% of my recent predictions.