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MLR is starting up again, which means its another round of changing teams. This year we have lost three teams and gained three, keeping the total at 12. Rugby ATL was sold, and new ownership has moved the team to Los Angeles. With the move comes a rebrand, which is about as bad as the last one was, but also changes up the squad enough to basical...

In the leadup to Super Rugby Pacific starting, there’s been a bunch of pre-season games between the teams, and some cross competition matches as well. The question always is how ‘real’ were those matches? The Crusaders and Highlanders teams who played on the 16th likely won’t be the same as the teams that take the field in round 1 - either due t...

These are some of my favorite competitions, because it is so hard to predict what might happen. We toss together three separate leagues, add in some teams that rarely play anyone else in these competitions, and also have club managers trying to balance success here and in their own league, as the matches alternate through the spring (spring in t...

Model Review Now that we’re nearly two weeks into the competition, we can evaluate our predictions for the first couple weekends and see what may lie ahead. Overall, predictions have been great. The club based model only had two incorrect picks, calling Argentina over England by 3 and Fiji over Wales by 7. Not too mad about both of those - Arg...

The previous post detailed my predictions using the club based model, where each team is treated as a single entity. This completely ignores the changes in lineups from game to game or injuries that may change a team’s makeup, so has some inherent disadvantages. Especially where we have had some high profile injuries and surprise changes to worl...

Just a week out from the opening match, I’m recording the current predictions being made by my club level model. These predictions are updated a few times a week here as matches are played and new information becomes available, but they shouldn’t change much before kickoff, and recording them here allows for evaluation once matches are played. ...

Model Review Match Result Lineup Prediction Minutes Prediction Club Prediction Wales V Ireland on 2023/02/04 -24 -19.3 -21.1 -10.1 England V Scotland on 2023/02/04 -6 -9.5 -6.7 6.3 Italy V France on 2023/0...

Model Review Match Result Lineup Prediction Minutes Prediction Club Prediction Wales V Ireland on 2023/02/04 -24 -19.8 -21.5 -10.1 England V Scotland on 2023/02/04 -6 -9.1 -6.4 6.3 Italy V France on 2023/0...