North Harbour V Otago on 2026/09/26

Club Level Predictions

The first set of predictions treats a club as the smallest object, as the club develops its members, organizes a gameplan, and deploys its players as needed for each match. This club model is currently predicting North Harbour to win by 2.74.

Our Over/Under is 49.5 - and combined with the spread above, we have a predicted scoreline of 26 to 23

Each club has a rating and a rating deviation (similar to a Glicko rating), and expected performances can be generated. This allows for simulated matches and spreads like the ones below.

Projected Performances - Club Model

Projected Spreads - Club Model

Projected Results - Club Model

Player Level Predictions

The second set of predictions is based around the players themselves - each player gets a rating, and their contribution is weighted by their time on the field. The player model is currently predicting North Harbour to win by 1.61

Projected Performances - Player Model

Projected Spreads - Player Model

Projected Results - Player Model