Otago V Auckland on 2026/10/01, 45.0 to 42.0

Club Level Predictions

Now that the game has been played, lets see how the club predictions did. I predicted Otago to win by 16.93, and Otago won by 3.0. That’s an absolute error of 13.9 for the margin of victory, while my average absolute error has been 14.8 over the past six months. This prediction was more accurate than 43.0% of my recent predictions.

For the Over/Under model, I predicted a total of 54.5 and we have an actual total of 87.0. That’s an absolute error of 32.5 compared to a six month average of 14.8. This prediction was more accurate than 8.9% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Club Model

Projected Spreads - Club Model

Projected Results - Club Model

Player Level Predictions

With the player model, I predicted Otago to win by 11.29, and Otago won by 3.0. That’s an absolute error of 8.3 for the margin of victory, while the average error as been 15.0 for the past six months. So this prediction was more accurate than 47.5% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Player Model

Projected Spreads - Player Model

Projected Results - Player Model