Manawatu V Canterbury on 2026/10/03, 12.0 to 22.0

Club Level Predictions

Now that the game has been played, lets see how the club predictions did. I predicted Canterbury to win by 2.55, and Canterbury won by 10.0. That’s an absolute error of 7.4 for the margin of victory, while my average absolute error has been 14.6 over the past six months. This prediction was more accurate than 64.9% of my recent predictions.

For the Over/Under model, I predicted a total of 52.5 and we have an actual total of 34.0. That’s an absolute error of 18.5 compared to a six month average of 14.9. This prediction was more accurate than 31.9% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Club Model

Projected Spreads - Club Model

Projected Results - Club Model

Player Level Predictions

With the player model, I predicted Canterbury to win by 4.06, and Canterbury won by 10.0. That’s an absolute error of 5.9 for the margin of victory, while the average error as been 14.9 for the past six months. So this prediction was more accurate than 53.0% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Player Model

Projected Spreads - Player Model

Projected Results - Player Model