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layout: page title: Chinnor V Nottingham on 2026/10/30, 21.0 to 17.0 date: 2026-10-30 categories: rugby “RFU Championship 26/27” match projection —

Club Level Predictions

Now that the game has been played, lets see how the club predictions did. I predicted Chinnor to win by 6.84, and Chinnor won by 4.0. That’s an absolute error of 2.8 for the margin of victory, while my average absolute error has been 14.5 over the past six months. This prediction was more accurate than 85.9% of my recent predictions.

For the Over/Under model, I predicted a total of 50.5 and we have an actual total of 38.0. That’s an absolute error of 12.5 compared to a six month average of 14.8. This prediction was more accurate than 48.8% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Club Model

Projected Spreads - Club Model

Projected Results - Club Model

Player Level Predictions

With the player model, I predicted Chinnor to win by 5.92, and Chinnor won by 4.0. That’s an absolute error of 1.9 for the margin of victory, while the average error as been 14.5 for the past six months. So this prediction was more accurate than 75.0% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Player Model

Projected Spreads - Player Model

Projected Results - Player Model