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layout: page title: Mont-de-Marsan V Bourgoin-Jallieu on 2026/10/30, 29.0 to 25.0 date: 2026-10-30 categories: rugby “Nationale 26/27” match projection —

Club Level Predictions

Now that the game has been played, lets see how the club predictions did. I predicted Mont-de-Marsan to win by 12.81, and Mont-de-Marsan won by 4.0. That’s an absolute error of 8.8 for the margin of victory, while my average absolute error has been 14.5 over the past six months. This prediction was more accurate than 60.5% of my recent predictions.

For the Over/Under model, I predicted a total of 45.5 and we have an actual total of 54.0. That’s an absolute error of 8.5 compared to a six month average of 14.8. This prediction was more accurate than 62.9% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Club Model

Projected Spreads - Club Model

Projected Results - Club Model

Player Level Predictions

With the player model, I predicted Mont-de-Marsan to win by 5.55, and Mont-de-Marsan won by 4.0. That’s an absolute error of 1.5 for the margin of victory, while the average error as been 14.5 for the past six months. So this prediction was more accurate than 75.7% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Player Model

Projected Spreads - Player Model

Projected Results - Player Model