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layout: page title: Belgium V Hong Kong on 2026/10/31, 27.0 to 17.0 date: 2026-10-31 categories: rugby “International Test Match 2026” match projection —

Club Level Predictions

Now that the game has been played, lets see how the club predictions did. I predicted Belgium to win by 7.62, and Belgium won by 10.0. That’s an absolute error of 2.4 for the margin of victory, while my average absolute error has been 14.5 over the past six months. This prediction was more accurate than 88.1% of my recent predictions.

For the Over/Under model, I predicted a total of 46.5 and we have an actual total of 44.0. That’s an absolute error of 2.5 compared to a six month average of 14.8. This prediction was more accurate than 89.8% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Club Model

Projected Spreads - Club Model

Projected Results - Club Model

Player Level Predictions

With the player model, I predicted Belgium to win by 10.84, and Belgium won by 10.0. That’s an absolute error of 0.8 for the margin of victory, while the average error as been 14.5 for the past six months. So this prediction was more accurate than 78.5% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Player Model

Projected Spreads - Player Model

Projected Results - Player Model