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layout: page title: Richmond V Caldy on 2026/10/31, 35.0 to 29.0 date: 2026-10-31 categories: rugby “RFU Championship 26/27” match projection —

Club Level Predictions

Now that the game has been played, lets see how the club predictions did. I predicted Richmond to win by 0.29, and Richmond won by 6.0. That’s an absolute error of 5.7 for the margin of victory, while my average absolute error has been 14.5 over the past six months. This prediction was more accurate than 74.7% of my recent predictions.

For the Over/Under model, I predicted a total of 52.5 and we have an actual total of 64.0. That’s an absolute error of 11.5 compared to a six month average of 14.8. This prediction was more accurate than 52.7% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Club Model

Projected Spreads - Club Model

Projected Results - Club Model

Player Level Predictions

With the player model, I predicted Richmond to win by 1.4, and Richmond won by 6.0. That’s an absolute error of 4.6 for the margin of victory, while the average error as been 14.5 for the past six months. So this prediction was more accurate than 64.2% of my recent predictions.

Projected Performances - Player Model

Projected Spreads - Player Model

Projected Results - Player Model