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layout: page title: Portugal V Samoa on 2026/11/14 date: 2026-11-14 categories: rugby “Nations Cup 2026” match review —

Club Level Predictions

The first set of predictions treats a club as the smallest object, as the club develops its members, organizes a gameplan, and deploys its players as needed for each match. This club model is currently predicting Portugal to win by 15.6.

Our Over/Under is 50.5 - and combined with the spread above, we have a predicted scoreline of 33 to 17

Each club has a rating and a rating deviation (similar to a Glicko rating), and expected performances can be generated. This allows for simulated matches and spreads like the ones below.

Projected Performances - Club Model

Projected Spreads - Club Model

Projected Results - Club Model