Six Nations After Round 2

Model Review

After 6, our club level model is 5 of 6, and the player models are 6 of 6. Interestingly, the player model was a bit less accurate than the club model for the Ireland v France match, which may point to a bit of an overvaluation of Irish players, or an undervaluation of French players. If such a misevaluation exists, it may be caused by the separation of the Top 14 and the URC, as those clubs would only really play in the ERCC tournaments. Both tournaments are underway, but clubs may have put out some sub-par sides in the group stages.

All number are using the most recent models, and always predict a match using only data available before that match kicks off. Except for the Player Minutes model, of course, as we need the match to be played to see how long any player is on the field.

MatchClub Level PredictionLineup PredictionMinutes PredictionResult
IRE @ WALIRE by 10.1IRE by 18.1IRE by 19.4IRE by 24
SCO @ ENGENG by 6.3SCO by 7.1SCO by 4SCO by 6
FRA @ ITAFRA by 10.7FRA by 12.7FRA by 11FRA by 5
FRA @ IREIRE by 7.5IRE by 26IRE by 30.1IRE by 13
WAL @ SCOSCO by 9.5SCO by 29.3SCO by 27.7SCO by 28
ITA @ ENGENG by 14.9ENG by 11.8ENG by 10.7ENG by 17
Average Errors9.75.76.1 

Current Table

TeamWinsPoint DifferentialCompetition Points
Ireland23710
Scotland23410
England1116
France1-85
Italy0-221
Wales0-520